July 02, 2013
New Research Shows Germany’s Health System Will Need Capacity for 3.2 Million Patients Entering Nursing Homes and In-Patient Facilities by 2030
In-Patient Facilities Will Need 371,000 More Beds to Meet Increasing Demand from Aging Citizens
KRONBERG; July 2, 2013 – Germany will need capacity for adding 3.2 million patients to nursing homes and in-patient facilities by 2030, according to a new study, 2013 Nursing and Medical Home Report by Accenture, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) and the Institute for Health Care Business (HCB). The rapidly aging population in Germany will also drive demand for 371,000 in-patient beds and up to 331,000 additional health workers within the same time period. The study also shows that Germany will need to invest between 54 and 73 billion euros to manage the influx of new patients entering in-patient facilities by 2030.
Adding to a current shortage of nurses, the research estimates that Germany will need to add 157,000 nurses and up to 331,000 health workers to meet the influx of patients by 2030. While the number of German nurses has doubled in the past decade, last year 277,000 registered nurses were nevertheless supported by more than 952,000 health workers due to an ongoing skills shortage.
“Working in the nursing sector needs to become more attractive to meet the shortage of trained nurses”, says Sebastian Krolop M.D., managing director of Accenture’s health business in Germany and co-author of the study. “However, this means that compensation needs to rise and health systems need to increase operational productivity so nurses can focus more on patient care.”
The study also shows clinicians in Germany are facing a rapidly changing market. Since 2011, for example, the number of in-patient care facilities in the public sector have declined by 28 percent while the number of private facilities has remained the same. Within the same time period, outpatient facilities in the private sector have increased the number of treated cases by 89 percent while public operators have only increased 11 percent.
The report also shows that patients are increasingly transferred from hospitals to in-patient care facilities. In 2011, 60 percent of all new clients were transferred directly from hospitals while only one-fifth (21 percent) had transferred in 2003 directly from a hospital. The study also suggests a link between the quality of care and economic solvency, as in-patient facilities that practiced evidenced-based guidelines were 25 percent less likely to report negative revenues than facilities with higher variation of care.
About the Methodology
The 2013 Nursing and Medical Home Report has been published for the fourth time in 2013. Accenture, hcb and RWI have analyzed 486 annual financial statements of 1,809 in-patient and medical homes for 2010 and 2011. This is equivalent to approximately 15 percent of the total market. The report is further based on official figures for all 12,400 nursing homes and 12,300 outpatient care providers from the National Statistical Office. The main objective of the report is to increase transparency in the German nursing market.
Accenture is a global management consulting, technology services and outsourcing company, with approximately 266,000 people serving clients in more than 120 countries. Combining unparalleled experience, comprehensive capabilities across all industries and business functions, and extensive research on the world’s most successful companies, Accenture collaborates with clients to help them become high-performance businesses and governments. The company generated net revenues of US$27.9 billion for the fiscal year ended Aug. 31, 2012. Its home page is www.accenture.com.
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